Reasons to be Cheerful !

(Guardian Newspaper leader, 2nd February 2008): http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/feb/02/leadersandreply.mainsection2

It is becoming increasingly difficult to turn on the radio or television or open a newspaper without being deluged with evidence of an international crisis. Whether it is another City pundit spelling out the apocalyptic consequences of the sub-prime lending crisis in the US, fresh write-offs by investment banks, rogue trading in France or yet more evidence of a UK housing recession, the message is almost universally gloomy. Evidence of recession is everywhere except one place: the economic statistics themselves.
Yesterday the National Institute, an independent research body, after considering the effects of the international crisis, cut its prediction for growth in the UK in 2008 from 2.2% in October to 2% . Hardly a crisis. In fact it would be a very happy outcome considering what is supposed to be happening around us. Remember, at both ends of the 1980s the UK suffered not a mild slowdown, but negative growth. The figure of 2%, according to the NI, is a shorthand way of saying there is a 75% chance of growth being in the range 1% to 3% and a 25% chance of it being outside that range. Either way, as the NI's Ray Barrell said on Radio 4's Today programme yesterday, "there is no clear evidence that the economy is slowing down sharply". John Kay, the independent-minded economist, hinted on the same programme that most of the media pundits these days were from the City and may be producing gloomy forecasts because that was a better way to pursuade the Bank of England to reduce interest rates, rather than complaining about falling profits.
If you look at the rest of the UK there is scant evidence we are on the edge of a precipice. True, the current account deficit is horrendous, but no one seems to be worrying about that any more. In the three months leading up to November the number of people in employment was 29.4 million, the highest since recent records began in 1972, and was 175,000 up on the quarter. Unemployment, as measured by those claiming benefits, has fallen for 15 consecutive months to 807,000 in December, the lowest for over 30 years. Earnings (excluding bonuses), are rising at a modest 3.6% and consumer price inflation in December was only 2.1% (though it is expected to rise because of higher oil prices). Government borrowing is definitely higher than planned but hardly anyone thinks that this is the right time to rein it in.
You might think from the headlines that there had been a collapse in house prices: yet the latest figures from Nationwide show that house prices in January were 4.2% above a year ago, or double the rate of consumer price inflation. It could equally well be reported as a continuing boom, albeit at a lower pace.
Nor is there evidence of collapse elsewhere. The French and German economies are doing quite well and, for all the talk of recession in the US, the latest GDP figures show expansion of 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2007 after 4.9% in the third quarter. That is getting close to an official recession (two successive quarters of negative growth) but it is not there yet and there is a stimulation package planned. As for the whole world, the IMF recently downgraded its forecasts and now expects global growth of 4.1%, with a warning that it could be worse because of "financial market turmoil". How much City woes will affect the real economy that the rest of us live in is unclear. For instance, there is evidence that US sub-prime borrowers are defaulting on mortgages (especially when they are higher than the property's value) rather than taking a hit on their credit cards as in earlier recessions. They are letting banks take the strain.
None of this proves there will not be a serious recession. That will depend on billions of people all over the world freely deciding whether they will save more and spend less. That is very difficult to predict. But it would be a shame if the world talked itself into a recession on the basis of false information.

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Top Five BIG MISTAKES on CVs!

It was tempting to put the top 500, but common sense prevailed! As you can imagine, we read a lot of CVs here at Seltek..it certainly runs into dozens every single day. Also, we talk constantly to employers about CVs, so over the years we have gathered a great deal of information about the things people like about CVs and the things they dislike.

Things people like about CVs:

• Concise (two pages maximum!)
• Well laid out: easy to scan in moments!
• Perfect grammar and spelling. You've got plenty of time to get it write! (That's a joke!)
• Job history going from current job backwards, with ALL dates matching up (no suspicious gaps!)
• Achievements clearly highlighted. These after all, are what will set you apart from the riff-raff!

Things people DON'T like about CVs:

• The words CURRICULUM VITAE at the top (particularly if they're spelt wrong!)
• Personal profiles ("An outstanding man manager with an exceptional background blah blah". Oh yeah? Well, we'll be the judge of that!)
• Long winded descriptions, particularly if they're written in the third person ("John acquired a third class degree at Wyre Piddle College of Technology" etc). It's YOUR CV for heaven's sake!
• Reams of pages about scientific papers written by you clever scientists. Entirely forgivable if you're applying for academic jobs, but not when you're applying for commercial positions.

Your CV is the key that will unlock doors for you. Get it right! If you need help or advice about constructing your CV, just call me Guy Buncombe on 01279 657716 or look on our website http://www.seltekconsultants.co.uk/writeacv.htm

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